Age of Conan

Originally posted by Hamrtime2

 

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Originally posted by zymurgeist
I'm not going to make any wild guesses at subscription numbers because it's a moving target. What the Q3 report shows is that Funcom is not going broke, AoC is not going away, and all the nonsense people have been spouting as "facts" about funcom financials are both wrong and irrelevant. If you like the game play it. If you don't don't.

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If the numbers look so good then why did the stock price hit another "all time low" on the day the q3 numbers came out? Funcom is goin down. It doesnt matter what they project. By March of 09, AoC will be on the bidding block.
 

Because stock price isn't related to company health it's related to earnings potential. Funcom isn't getting rich, they're not going broke either.  Funcom won't sell AoC as long as it's making at least some  money and no one is going to buy on it if it isn't.  Funcom isn't going broke , that's not a projection it's demonstable fact, AoC isn't going anywhere.

Originally posted by Hamrtime2

 

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Originally posted by zymurgeist
I'm not going to make any wild guesses at subscription numbers because it's a moving target. What the Q3 report shows is that Funcom is not going broke, AoC is not going away, and all the nonsense people have been spouting as "facts" about funcom financials are both wrong and irrelevant. If you like the game play it. If you don't don't.

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If the numbers look so good then why did the stock price hit another "all time low" on the day the q3 numbers came out? Funcom is goin down. It doesnt matter what they project. By March of 09, AoC will be on the bidding block.
 

maybe the reason the stocks dropped is because alot of the stocks droped today I think all the Dow Jones dropped like 500 total

After going from the PVE server where my whole guild left the game (less maybe 2 ppl )... then starting fresh with the PvP server and maxing out my ToS to find that kylikki was almost impossible to beat due to her major bugs and finding that PvP in Wild Lands and Khesh was keeping me playing I can say that imo this game was really lacking content ... end game didn't even exist ... gems were so OP that one hit by a guardian and i saw stars =P and after being killed over and over I began to wonder if maybe I just liked the smell of dirt =P OR that they should have removed the gems a little earlier ^^ ... either way a game that fixes instances like catacombs (which really wasn't one of the zones that needed any fixing) has their priorities a little backwards . Hey I have to say one thing the combat system is the best I have seen and was alot of fun and the fact that as a healer I didn't just watch health bars was a big plus 2 and that my dps kicked butt in PVE but again here is another game that lost its population due to the lack of content and the fact that the game engine sucked =D 

Vanguard  ... bugs bugs bugs and oh more bugs

AoC... good combat system , lack of higher lvl content and that most ppls computers couldn't handle it even though they had amazing systems :)

Scneario hammer (Warhammer ) well what can i say another game quickly losing its players due to lack of end game content /players  ... RvR was not like DaoC lets just say that :)

hmmm maybe Aion will be more promising =D (2009 =(  sigh hehe )

Originally posted by Azrile

Originally posted by BearShammy

Originally posted by Azrile

I don't know why you keep making up that 150k number.   You keep forgeting about the 6M from 2nd quarter, the 1-2M from box sales from the 2nd quarter and the .6M from Plutolife.  All of those things need to be subtracted before you can calculate the number of subscribers. 

It's more like 75-100k.. which is not terrible, but certainly not a great thing.

Funcom stock tanked today (down 20%).  If the numbers released by Funcom were at all good, the stock would not have lost 20% of it's value in 7 hours.

By the way, did Funcom announce they were going to do an emmissions today?  Wasn't that your big plan to save the company. 

A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.

Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher. 

 

 Explain to me what 150K is?   The way your did your math indicates that 150K was the AVERAGE amount of subscribers from July, August and September.  Now answer this..  On July 1st..how many subscribes did AOC have?  415k.  If the average of the 3 months is 150k, and it had somewhere around 415k at the start of July.. that means the subscriber total on Sept 30th has to be substantialy lower then your average of 150k.

If you want to say that AOC had 150k subscribers in July and 150k in August,  ONLY then can you say that there were 150K subscribers on Sept 30th.   Doing your math, the AVERAGE of the 3 months is 150k, the 150k is not the number of subscribers on Sept 30th.

Funcom pulled some hocus pocus with that 6M and then again with 2M from EU box sales from June.  How in the world does a company 'misplace' 6M dollars when that is like 50% of their revenues from that quarter.

Funcom manipulated their numbers so they would get near their guidance.  Investors saw through it which is why the stock dropped 20% in one day.   $3.20 for a stock that traded at $55 only 6 months ago.

What Azrile said.

If you take Q3 revenue, subtract revenue from other sources (box sales, AO etc), and divide by 45 you get the average subs over 3 months (which appears to be around 150k - although i haven't checked the math).

Since the number of subs at the start of the quarter was higher than the average (if we are to believe the Q# report there was ~400k at that stage), then the number of subs at the end of the quarter MUST be lower than the average. 

I stand by what ive said previously, that current subs are in the range of 120k, and that will drop to 80-100k in Q4 (due mainly to WotLK, and also Funcom's predictable incompetence) and stabilize there for the foreseeable future. AoC will not shut down, FC will not go broke, but the probable trajectory for further development on AoC is drastically different from what was the night before launch.

As for the red text....ROFL "spot on with their guidings".... Being out by 6M is sloppy at best, decietful at worst.

Originally posted by FischerBlack

Originally posted by Azrile

Originally posted by BearShammy

Originally posted by Azrile

I don't know why you keep making up that 150k number.   You keep forgeting about the 6M from 2nd quarter, the 1-2M from box sales from the 2nd quarter and the .6M from Plutolife.  All of those things need to be subtracted before you can calculate the number of subscribers. 

It's more like 75-100k.. which is not terrible, but certainly not a great thing.

Funcom stock tanked today (down 20%).  If the numbers released by Funcom were at all good, the stock would not have lost 20% of it's value in 7 hours.

By the way, did Funcom announce they were going to do an emmissions today?  Wasn't that your big plan to save the company. 

A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.

Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher. 

 

 Explain to me what 150K is?   The way your did your math indicates that 150K was the AVERAGE amount of subscribers from July, August and September.  Now answer this..  On July 1st..how many subscribes did AOC have?  415k.  If the average of the 3 months is 150k, and it had somewhere around 415k at the start of July.. that means the subscriber total on Sept 30th has to be substantialy lower then your average of 150k.

If you want to say that AOC had 150k subscribers in July and 150k in August,  ONLY then can you say that there were 150K subscribers on Sept 30th.   Doing your math, the AVERAGE of the 3 months is 150k, the 150k is not the number of subscribers on Sept 30th.

Funcom pulled some hocus pocus with that 6M and then again with 2M from EU box sales from June.  How in the world does a company 'misplace' 6M dollars when that is like 50% of their revenues from that quarter.

Funcom manipulated their numbers so they would get near their guidance.  Investors saw through it which is why the stock dropped 20% in one day.   $3.20 for a stock that traded at $55 only 6 months ago.

What Azrile said.

If you take Q3 revenue, subtract revenue from other sources (box sales, AO etc), and divide by 45 you get the average subs over 3 months (which appears to be around 150k - although i haven't checked the math).

Since the number of subs at the start of the quarter was higher than the average (if we are to believe the Q# report there was ~400k at that stage), then the number of subs at the end of the quarter MUST be lower than the average. 

I stand by what ive said previously, that current subs are in the range of 120k, and that will drop to 80-100k in Q4 (due mainly to WotLK, and also Funcom's predictable incompetence) and stabilize there for the foreseeable future. AoC will not shut down, FC will not go broke, but the probable trajectory for further development on AoC is drastically different from what was the night before launch.

As for the red text....ROFL "spot on with their guidings".... Being out by 6M is sloppy at best, decietful at worst.

errr... the 150 to 200 000 subscriber calculation (even though simplistic) is based on FC's revenue forecast for Q4. Meaning 150-200 000 subscribers is the average number for Q4. Just wanted to shed some light.

Originally posted by Transporter

Originally posted by FischerBlack

Originally posted by Azrile

Originally posted by BearShammy

Originally posted by Azrile

I don't know why you keep making up that 150k number.   You keep forgeting about the 6M from 2nd quarter, the 1-2M from box sales from the 2nd quarter and the .6M from Plutolife.  All of those things need to be subtracted before you can calculate the number of subscribers. 

It's more like 75-100k.. which is not terrible, but certainly not a great thing.

Funcom stock tanked today (down 20%).  If the numbers released by Funcom were at all good, the stock would not have lost 20% of it's value in 7 hours.

By the way, did Funcom announce they were going to do an emmissions today?  Wasn't that your big plan to save the company. 

A single look on your posting history will tell us why you suddenly want FC to make 2 Mill on boxsales. Come on you are not a diehard AoC fan you are a hater. 2 Mill on boxsales, for Christ sake!!! You should rater say something like I think AoC will sell 10000. Each box is like 39 USD, FC get 20% of this which is 7.8 USD. 2 000000 / 7.8 = 254 000 boxes sold. It's good to be optimistic but I think you are too optimistic and I think you are too optimistic to fit your estimate to your agenda.

Take 8-10 mill USD substract 1 Mill due to other income (including boxsales), which gives you 7-9 Mill USD. Divide it with 45 and you will end up on 150000-200000 as the most conservative subscribernumber estimate. We all know that FC are pretty conservative and spot on with their guidings so, don't be surprised if they overperform and numbers will be even higher. 

 

 Explain to me what 150K is?   The way your did your math indicates that 150K was the AVERAGE amount of subscribers from July, August and September.  Now answer this..  On July 1st..how many subscribes did AOC have?  415k.  If the average of the 3 months is 150k, and it had somewhere around 415k at the start of July.. that means the subscriber total on Sept 30th has to be substantialy lower then your average of 150k.

If you want to say that AOC had 150k subscribers in July and 150k in August,  ONLY then can you say that there were 150K subscribers on Sept 30th.   Doing your math, the AVERAGE of the 3 months is 150k, the 150k is not the number of subscribers on Sept 30th.

Funcom pulled some hocus pocus with that 6M and then again with 2M from EU box sales from June.  How in the world does a company 'misplace' 6M dollars when that is like 50% of their revenues from that quarter.

Funcom manipulated their numbers so they would get near their guidance.  Investors saw through it which is why the stock dropped 20% in one day.   $3.20 for a stock that traded at $55 only 6 months ago.

What Azrile said.

If you take Q3 revenue, subtract revenue from other sources (box sales, AO etc), and divide by 45 you get the average subs over 3 months (which appears to be around 150k - although i haven't checked the math).

Since the number of subs at the start of the quarter was higher than the average (if we are to believe the Q# report there was ~400k at that stage), then the number of subs at the end of the quarter MUST be lower than the average. 

I stand by what ive said previously, that current subs are in the range of 120k, and that will drop to 80-100k in Q4 (due mainly to WotLK, and also Funcom's predictable incompetence) and stabilize there for the foreseeable future. AoC will not shut down, FC will not go broke, but the probable trajectory for further development on AoC is drastically different from what was the night before launch.

As for the red text....ROFL "spot on with their guidings".... Being out by 6M is sloppy at best, decietful at worst.

 

errr... the 150 to 200 000 subscriber calculation (even though simplistic) is based on FC's revenue forecast for Q4. Meaning 150-200 000 subscribers is the average number for Q4. Just wanted to shed some light.

without question 200k subs over quarter 4 is above their revenue guidance, 150 is fair, 200 is not.

edit and by the way I'm not saying funcom have 150k subs now I'm saying thats the sort of number they have used for their revenue guidance, I still think that is optimistic.

Just trying to be objective here -- I know a lot of people who were still playing at the beginning of Q3. Realize that would have started around June, so these numbers are not close to being a reflection of the current game. I was subbed in June and July as was my whole guild (350 members). Not 1 of us plays the game now.

I am not trolling, I don't dispute there are people who subscribe to this game, my point is, you need to look at what that quarter covers. They don't release that detailed info for the last week, it is from months ago.