also there are people who don't like betas like me ,  so there will be alot more then one million

wow, this wasn't deleted yet? amazing.

Yes, GW2 will sell well over 2 million copies.  But not in the first week of release.  Because sensible people don't play games in the first week of release, but many will buy a copy later.

Remember that while active subscription numbers can decline, the total number of boxes sold cannot.  So Guild Wars 2 will probably sell over 5 million copies, too.  The real question is whether it will take a month or a decade to get there.

I'd say roughly 1 million in the first week.

Advantages: the beta is a great sign, I'd say that unless the game turns out to be horribly bad in the betas (that doesn't seem to be so far), almost everyone interested enough to sign up for a beta will get it on release if not preorder it.

Cons: On the other hand the release window points to a summer release, that tends to be a slow time for games, which is what makes me doubt it'll reach SWTOR numbers, which had the advantages of having one of the biggest gaming and non gaming franchises behind it, and a holiday release.

I don't think they will sell that many copies in the first week. Like GW1, WoW, SWTOR, Rift and alike, GW2 will grow over the following months after release. They will probably sell 500k copies within the first week due to GW veterans and MMO players (those who know the most about the game). After that, when the first fair reviews have been written, a lot more player will enter the world of GW2.

However I think GW2 will grow much faster than GW1, because it adresses a bigger audience. Overall I guess it will have 8 mio players over 3 years.

The Witcher 2 RPG was PC only and sold 1 million TOTAL.

But since a lot of people are waiting for a good mmorpg and the name Guild Wars is pretty well known I'm guessing 1 million sales in the first week.

The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it.  I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in.  I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.

It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week.  That's a huge success actually.  I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.

Source:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games

Based on the threads on this website, i think it will sell 37 million copies and become the best selling game of all time, with a country named after it. Word is it's Somalia, soon to be offically known as Guild Wars 2...yes even the '2'. :)

Originally posted by Vegetto

Based on the threads on this website, i think it will sell 37 million copies and become the best selling game of all time, with a country named after it. Word is it's Somalia, soon to be offically known as Guild Wars 2...yes even the '2'. :)

Except 37 million copies sold wouldn't be the best selling game of all time, see above.

Though, they should definitely start bundling Guild Wars 2 with Windows sales.

Originally posted by Keogh

If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.

Then presumably, by that logic, SWTOR was a lot worse than a failure?

Originally posted by Tawn47

Originally posted by Keogh

If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.

Then presumably, by that logic, SWTOR was a lot worse than a failure?

Not necessarily. SWTOR has a subscription fee. It's generally expected that a buy to play game would have more box sales, especially considering Guild Wars 2's main source of revenue will be from the box.

Originally posted by komobo

That's the most skewed poll I've seen in a while, thus i went with 14 trillion copies sold!

Same thought here. Post a uselessly skewed poll and get a useless answer.

Originally posted by Keogh

Do you think GW2 will sell well over 2 Million copies its first week of release?

If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.

 

Not only are the poll choices horrible, but the tag line that if the game doesn't sell at least twice as many copies in it's first week as SWTOR it's a failure. Total rubbish. One big advantage of the B2P model is that it's a model that keeps fans as fans and grows sales numbers over time under the weight of ongoing word of mouth.

GW2 could sell half as many first week copies as SWTOR and still outsell the game ten fold by the end of the first year. Since no one is paying subscription fees, there is no lost revenue from people who come to the game a little late.

Originally posted by Magnum2103

The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it.  I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in.  I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.

It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week.  That's a huge success actually.  I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.

Source:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games

I didn't know Guild Wars sold THAT good.

I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.

How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.

If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.

Opposite of Star Wars TOR. :)

I think 2 mil at first and then it slowly climbs from there but we'll see.

Originally posted by 13lake

14 Trillion of course, were gonna have a bout a dozen different alien species come and buy it on the first day of sales ;)

I'll see your 14 trillion and raise you another 40 trillion. There are aliens in other galaxies, too, y'know. ;P

Originally posted by thekid1

Originally posted by Magnum2103

The game doesn't have nearly as much press outside the MMO community as SW:TOR did, and without the well known Bioware tag on it.  I'd expect it to sell around a 1 million copies, with a very steady rise as word of mouth kicks in.  I was suprised at the number of beta signups in a short period of time so I very well be wrong about this too.

It certainly wouldn't be a failure if it sold 1 million copies in it's first week.  That's a huge success actually.  I think overtime Guild Wars 2 could easily compete for the top 4 best seller spot for PC games, Guild Wars is already #7 and Guild Wars 2 is already shaping up to be a bigger success than the original if you believe the hype.

Source:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games

I didn't know Guild Wars sold THAT good.

I don't care that much about the sales in the first week, I'm more interested about the long run.

How many people will be playing in one, two, five years from release.

If the Guild Wars 1 sales figure are any indication more people will be playing in two years then in the first few weeks.

Opposite of Star Wars TOR. :)

I paid less than 7 bucks for my copy of GW1.  I'm guessing i'm not the only one in the same situation, and that's clearly not the same thing as selling a game at full price.  Sure, it's still a lot of copies, but not as meaninful as it would be if everyone had paid 50 bucks. 

The "success" of the game won't be determined by box sales, because it won't be enough to cover development costs and keep the game running.  The success will be determined by the cash shop and how much money they're able to sucker away from people. 

guild wars 1 sold six million so expect at least the same amount sold for guild wars 2.

Originally posted by fiontar

Originally posted by Keogh

Do you think GW2 will sell well over 2 Million copies its first week of release?

If it doesn't sell at least twice as many as SWTOR its a failure.

 

Not only are the poll choices horrible, but the tag line that if the game doesn't sell at least twice as many copies in it's first week as SWTOR it's a failure. Total rubbish. One big advantage of the B2P model is that it's a model that keeps fans as fans and grows sales numbers over time under the weight of ongoing word of mouth.

GW2 could sell half as many first week copies as SWTOR and still outsell the game ten fold by the end of the first year. Since no one is paying subscription fees, there is no lost revenue from people who come to the game a little late.

There is just as much lost revenue, except it is lost from the Cash Shop instead of subscription rates.  And the game doesn't "keep fans" just because it's B2P.  If they uninstall the game, or simply quit playing, they are no longer part of the userbase.  And if they don't buy shit from the cash shop, they're completely meaningless to NCSoft and don't count anyway.

Originally posted by Roybe

As I said IF this is true, meaning there were 6 million games sold (not counting trilogy, expansions, etc.), then I would expect immediate sales to be roughly 2/3 of the amount or 4 million games.  As for those that believe the active player base matters, it doesn't.  Many people liked and enjoyed the game, but 'finished it' (whatever those goals were in there own minds), are willing to purchase the second one, and will do so.

 

Finally, If that number does include the trilogy then that means my estimate would be between 1.33 million and 2 million copies sold in the first days of sale.  Honestly, I'll have 2 CE's if offered, having already paid for two regular versons, and that is all that really matters to me!

6 million units sold.